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Remember he’s meant to be showing that my evaluation is “total nonsense”. He starts by taking GERS is the only data source we’ve got and that everybody (like the White Paper, the Scottish Government, the SNP and even Stu himself) relies on it. Gives Scotland slightly (about 10%) more for provisioning general public services than a straight population share would. That’s correct – I make it 10.7% in the most recent year.
The figure works out at £1,326 per person in the most recent year and in real conditions on average £1,450 over the last 15 years. Gross that up across our 5.3 million populace and you also get £7.a season 7bn. Scotland’s total education budget is £7.6bn – we can probably consent that £7.7bn is a lot more than “slightly more”. He indulges in a little distraction about Barnett consequentials Then. Of course what GERS observes is the Scottish Government’s assessment of what’s allocated to us after the impact of Barnett.
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Arguing about Barnett in the framework of GERS “being the true problem” can be an irrelevant distraction. You can have issues with Barnett if you like, but no one disputes that GERS shows the result of applying Barnett as it stands. Obviously were Barnett to be scrapped or fundamentally changed then that would change what is allocated to us and that would be reflected in GERS.
The next distraction is a doozy. We’re all dealing with the most up-to-date GERS numbers (which restate historical years on a like-for-like basis) but his post now extensively quotes the “renowned economists Jim and Margaret Cuthbert” (no, me neither) from 2005 and 2007! In 2008 the Cuthberts themselves said: “This GERS follows a significant review, which has been carried out by officials after consulting widely with users of GERS, (including economists and statisticians like ourselves). I don’t suggest to understate the choice choices that we could have under independence.